Output gaps and inflation in Mainland China /
by Stefan Gerlach and Wensheng Peng.
Description
- Language(s)
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English
- Published
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Basel, Switzerland : Bank for International Settlements, Monetary and Economic Dept., 2006.
- Summary
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We estimate output gaps using three methods for Mainland China on annual data panning 1982-2003. The estimates are similar and appear to co-move with inflation. Standards Phillips curves, however, do not fit the data well. This may reflect the omission of some important variable(s) such as the effect of price deregulation, trade liberalisation and /or changes in the exchange rate regime. We reestimate the Phillips curves assuming that there is an unobserved variable that follows an AR(2) process. The modified model fits the data much better and accounts for some of the surprising features of the simple Phillips curve estimates.
- Note
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"February 2006."
Also available in print.
- Physical Description
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iii, 27 p. ;
30 cm.
Viewability